Executive Summary
Global wheat prices have risen about 14% since February 2025. The key drivers are adverse weather in Australia and Argentina, two of the world's largest exporters, and Russian export quota restrictions imposed as part of preparations for its domestic planting season.
Key Price Drivers
La Niña Effect: The ongoing La Niña weather pattern has cut Australia's wheat production estimate by about 8–12 million MT compared with 2024 levels. Australia is one of Türkiye's main competitors in MENA markets.
Russian Export Restrictions: Russia's Ministry of Agriculture set the wheat export quota for the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year at 10.6 million MT, down 18% year on year. This is steering MENA buyers toward Turkish and Central Asian origin wheat.
Strong Demand from MENA: Egypt's GASC pursued an aggressive tender policy in May 2025 with purchases of 1.2 million MT, a 22% increase over the same period in 2024. Saudi Arabia and Iraq have also accelerated strategic reserve building.
Current Spot Prices (CIF MENA, May 2025)
- Turkish Hard Red Wheat
- USD 285–295/MT CIF
- Ukrainian Milling Wheat
- USD 275–285/MT CIF
- Russian 12.5% Protein
- USD 270–280/MT CIF
Outlook
We expect wheat prices to remain firm through the third quarter of 2025. A correction could occur in the fourth quarter if Northern Hemisphere harvests, notably in Türkiye, the EU and Canada, come in above expectations. Buyers are advised to lock in their third-quarter volumes at current price levels. My Trade Global has prompt loading positions from FOB Mersin and Anatolian Hard Red Wheat in stock.